A new government report is expected to confirm the smallest U.S. cattle herd in over 70 years. Rising costs and possible new trade barriers could push beef prices higher in the coming months.
Key Facts:
- Analysts predict the herd on Jan. 1 will drop by 0.7% from last year, marking the lowest level since 1951.
- Retail ground beef prices have climbed from around $3.81 pre-COVID to more than $5.60 today.
- Live cattle futures have reached record highs on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
- The USDA moved its herd rebuilding estimate from 2025 to 2027, citing high interest rates and poor pasture conditions.
- A proposed “tariff war 2.0” could tighten domestic beef supplies even further.
The Rest of The Story:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release official inventory data confirming a severe cattle shortage.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg say the herd has shrunk for a sixth year, creating an ongoing supply crunch.
High costs, challenging weather patterns, and increased export demands have all played a role.
“All of the things he is talking about have potentially negative consequences more so than anything positive,” said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, in a prior Bloomberg report.
He added that the cattle industry’s fate over the next few years appears grim.
Commentary:
Some view these conditions as a man-made crisis that could have been avoided with better planning.
High interest rates, shifting trade policies, and limited pasture management have combined to squeeze producers and create a long-term supply problem.
Producers who sold off breeding stock in recent years now face new trade barriers that make rebuilding even harder.
This situation will likely delay any recovery in herd numbers well beyond the new USDA estimate.
Consumers should expect beef prices to continue climbing this year, given the supply crunch.
Scarcity often leads to higher costs, and families may need to budget more for ground beef and other cuts.
From a practical standpoint, stocking up now on beef products could offer some short-term financial relief.
While there’s no quick fix, planning ahead might help mitigate the impact of rising prices.
The Bottom Line:
U.S. cattle numbers have hit a decades-long low, and experts say relief is still years away.
For consumers, higher meat prices are set to linger for the foreseeable future.
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