CNN’s data expert Harry Enten pushed back on President Biden’s claim that he could have defeated Donald Trump in 2024 if he had stayed in the race.
Key Facts:
• After Trump’s victory in November, Biden suggested in a USA Today interview that he would have prevailed had he not ended his campaign in July.
• Enten showed polling data indicating Biden never led Trump during that period in 2024.
• CNN’s data guru called Biden’s claim “flat out bonkers,” pointing to the president’s weak approval numbers.
• The polls in critical battleground states all had Trump leading by solid margins at the time Biden bowed out.
The Rest of The Story:
President Biden’s speculation came in the wake of Democrats analyzing what went wrong this cycle.
He insisted that polling data he reviewed gave him a belief he would have beaten Trump.
Enten, however, strongly disagreed.
He noted that Biden was behind in all major polls in 2024, illustrating that history rarely favors an incumbent president with such low approval.
Even before he exited the race, Biden struggled to drum up strong support or donor backing, leading him to drop out on July 21.
While Biden is not the only Democrat reflecting on what might have been, some within the party argue he could have brought moderate and independent voters on board.
Enten concluded that the numbers simply did not bear that out.
Based on the polling data, I categorize Biden's statement that he could have beaten Trump as "flat out bonkers."
Biden was well behind Trump when he dropped out. Biden never led in all of 2024. And no incumbent president who was anywhere near as unpopular as Biden has ever won. pic.twitter.com/lGk9h8pygU
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 8, 2025
The Bottom Line:
President Biden’s confidence conflicts with the reality of the polling data.
Enten’s analysis shows that the president faced unfavorable numbers against Trump in the key states needed to win.
This debate reveals how difficult it is for an unpopular incumbent to overcome steady polling deficits.
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Many in the Democratic Party are now left wondering if a different strategy could have altered the 2024 outcome.