America’s cattle herd has dropped to its lowest mid-year level since 1973, sending beef prices to record highs. Though analysts see signs of stabilization, a full recovery may still be far off.
Key Facts:
- The U.S. cattle and calves herd has fallen to 94.2 million—the lowest mid-year level since 1973.
- Retail beef prices have hit record highs as supply tightens.
- Goldman Sachs analysts say the cattle cycle may be at a cyclical low, signaling a slow rebuilding process ahead.
- Heifer numbers in feedlots remain stable, but beef cow numbers continue to decline.
- Experts warn a quick “V-shaped” recovery is unlikely; any rebound will likely take years.
The Rest of The Story:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest cattle report paints a sobering picture.
America’s total herd of cattle and calves has dropped to 94.2 million—the lowest mid-year number since 1973.
As the supply of beef tightens, grocery store prices for ground beef have surged to all-time highs.
Though some experts and market analysts see possible signs of stabilization, few are ready to call it a turnaround.
Derrell Peel, an agricultural economics professor at Oklahoma State University, said the data shows “very little indication of much herd rebuilding or anything very aggressive.”
He emphasized that ranchers are not holding back enough female calves—heifers—to grow future breeding stock.
“We are probably stabilizing cattle numbers, but we’re not growing yet,” he added.
Investment analysts from Goldman Sachs, including Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson, believe the cattle cycle has hit a 12-year low.
They suggest the industry is entering the early stages of a slow recovery, likely shaped like a “U” rather than a “V.”
Recovery will be gradual, not rapid.
At the same time, there’s rising political and economic pressure on the four corporations—JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill, and National Beef—that dominate 80% of the U.S. beef processing industry.
Senator Josh Hawley has called for greater competition, warning of the risks of monopoly power in food supply chains.
The push for recovery also includes strengthening smaller, regional processing plants and rebuilding a decentralized meat supply system that’s more resistant to future disruptions.
A total of 4 companies control a whopping 80% of the entire beef-processing industry. That's a modern-day monopoly.
The winners here? The monopolists – like Tyson Foods. The losers? Farmers & grocery shoppers.
We need more industry competition in America pic.twitter.com/UxZc7eoAOZ
— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) June 24, 2025
Commentary:
The current beef shortage isn’t just a grocery store problem—it’s a reflection of long-term neglect in rebuilding the cattle supply chain.
The only sustainable path forward is to grow the herd. But that’s a slow and expensive process.
Ranchers don’t raise cattle overnight; it takes time, labor, and the right economic incentives.
Right now, those incentives are beginning to emerge.
Record-high prices may finally be enough to encourage producers to expand, but they’re still cautious.
Years of regulatory headaches, high fuel and feed costs, and uncertainty about future returns have made ranching a risky bet.
What the industry needs most is for government to get out of the way.
The Trump administration must prioritize reducing fuel and input costs.
That means unlocking more energy production, easing restrictions on feed transport and production, and slashing red tape that hampers small and mid-sized ranchers.
Feed and fuel prices directly impact ranchers’ bottom lines.
If it’s too expensive to feed and move cattle, herd expansion simply won’t happen.
Government should act as a partner, not a barrier, by creating a regulatory environment where ranching is profitable again.
There’s also an urgent need to decentralize meat processing.
Putting most of our beef through four corporate processors has created a fragile system.
A more localized approach—with microplants and regional hubs—would reduce vulnerabilities and keep profits closer to the ranch.
Senator Hawley’s calls to investigate the meatpacking monopoly are long overdue.
Competitive markets benefit everyone—from ranchers to consumers—and create a system that’s better prepared for future shocks.
Ultimately, the only thing that will bring beef prices down is more cattle.
And that starts with policies that encourage production, lower costs, and remove unnecessary interference.
The Bottom Line:
America’s cattle supply is at a 50-year low, driving beef prices to new heights.
While there’s hope for a recovery, it won’t happen quickly—and only if ranchers can afford to grow their herds again.
The best solutions involve reducing fuel and feed costs, removing government barriers, and encouraging long-term investment in a more resilient meat supply chain.
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