Trump’s potential absence from the 2028 race has drawn dramatic speculation from HBO host Bill Maher, who compared the idea to Vladimir Putin’s power maneuver with Dmitry Medvedev. Maher claims Trump could control a future GOP president through public pressure and social media influence.
Key Facts:
- Bill Maher suggested Trump might not run in 2028, despite his continued popularity within the Republican Party.
- He compared the idea to Vladimir Putin’s role swap with Dmitry Medvedev in Russia.
- Maher claimed Trump could influence a future president by criticizing them on Truth Social to force policy changes.
- He argued no current Republican leaders could resist Trump’s influence, naming Marco Rubio, JD Vance, and Lindsey Graham as examples.
- Maher described Trump’s leadership style as transactional, rewarding loyalty and punishing dissent.
The Rest of The Story:
During his show, Bill Maher argued that Donald Trump will likely skip a 2028 presidential run yet still maintain significant influence over the GOP and the White House. He claimed this setup would mirror the arrangement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, where Putin retained control while holding another office.
Maher suggested Trump’s massive popularity among Republican voters would allow him to pressure a sitting president from the sidelines. According to Maher, if a future GOP president—like JD Vance or Marco Rubio—did something Trump disliked, the former president could simply post criticism on Truth Social and force a change in policy.
Maher dismissed the possibility of any Republican leader resisting Trump’s influence, arguing they would comply to maintain his support. He said Trump’s transactional approach ensures loyalty because allies expect to be rewarded for backing him and punished for opposing him.
He concluded that this loyalty structure, paired with Trump’s ability to energize the Republican base, means no figure within the party could stop him from steering policy even if he wasn’t in the Oval Office.
Commentary:
While Maher occasionally says something grounded in reality, this is not one of those times. The idea that a former president could maintain some influence after leaving office is nothing unusual. If the GOP wins in 2028, Trump will have the same option as any ex-president: to speak out, endorse, and shape the political conversation. That’s not some unprecedented scheme—it’s politics as usual.
Traditionally, most ex-presidents keep a low public profile out of respect for their successor. Barack Obama and Joe Biden are two glaring exceptions. In fact, Obama’s influence on the Biden administration was extensive, from policy direction to key staffing decisions. If Maher wants to portray Trump’s potential role as extraordinary, he’s ignoring the most recent Democratic example.
Maher’s suggestion that Trump could “control” the country from outside the White House is hyperbolic. A sitting president chooses whether to heed the advice—or criticism—of a predecessor. It’s not an iron chain of command. Any future Republican president will have their own political priorities and will ultimately answer to voters, not a private citizen.
Comparing America’s political system to Putin’s Russia is also off base. The constitutional checks and balances in the U.S. make such an arrangement impossible in the way Maher describes. This is more about Maher’s fixation on Trump than an honest assessment of how American governance works.
Maher has long displayed a persistent hostility toward Trump, sometimes to the point where even his occasional moments of reason are overshadowed. This theory fits that pattern—less analysis, more projection.
The Bottom Line:
Bill Maher’s claim that Trump could skip 2028 but still run the country from the sidelines stretches political reality well past the breaking point. Former presidents can remain influential, but they cannot dictate policy without the consent of the sitting president.
Maher’s comments reveal more about his enduring fixation on Trump than about the actual limits of presidential influence.
