Democrats hoping for another sweeping midterm victory in 2026 may be facing a much tighter race than expected. CNN’s own polling expert says current trends show the party’s advantage has significantly weakened compared to previous “blue wave” elections.
Key Facts:
- Democrats now hold a 2-point generic ballot lead, down from 7 points in similar years ahead of the 2006 and 2018 midterms.
- CNN analyst Harry Enten warned the 2026 cycle resembles 2024, not past Democratic wave elections.
- Cook Political Report projects Republicans could gain a net of 12 House seats in 2026.
- In 2018, Cook projected a +33 gain for Democrats, and they ended up gaining 41 House seats.
- Only once in 50 years has the president’s party retained the House in a midterm — post-9/11 in 2002.
The Rest of The Story:
CNN’s Harry Enten issued a warning to Democrats optimistic about another midterm sweep: the numbers don’t support it.
During a CNN segment this week, Enten revealed Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot has collapsed to just two points — a steep drop from the seven-point leads they held in July of 2005 and 2017.
Enten pointed out the current numbers are far weaker than what was seen before past wave elections that brought big wins for Democrats.
“Their lead is less than half of where it was,” Enten said, cautioning those predicting a repeat of 2006 or 2018 to “hold the phone.”
This year’s political climate, Enten argues, resembles the 2024 cycle much more closely.
That election saw only minor Democratic gains, not the sweeping victories some are hoping for this time.
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Commentary:
Democrats may be blue after this report — but it’s hardly shocking.
Despite media spin and constant anti-Trump hysteria, the facts are what they are: Donald Trump still commands broad support.
He’s doing what voters elected him to do — securing the border, dealing with the huge number of illegal immigrants that flooded the country, restoring economic stability, and fixing a bloated federal establishment.
Meanwhile, the Democrat Party is in chaos.
Its leadership is fractured, with no clear agenda except opposing Trump at every turn.
Instead of offering solutions, they default to rage, protest, and performative outrage. It’s not a winning formula.
And their rising star? A socialist candidate for New York City mayor who has made disturbing pro-intifada and antisemitic comments.
If this is who Democrats are rallying behind, they’re not offering a serious alternative — they’re alienating voters.
Voters see through the noise.
While Trump may be controversial, he is clear about his goals and unapologetic in his pursuit of them.
Democrats, on the other hand, seem more concerned with signaling than solving anything meaningful.
Enten’s analysis simply confirms what many Americans already feel: Democrats are not connecting.
Polls show that their advantage is fading fast, and the GOP is poised to make real gains in 2026 — especially in House races.
The left may try to blame Trump’s popularity or voter apathy, but the truth is simpler.
Their policies aren’t working, their leaders aren’t inspiring, and their strategy is just attack, attack, attack.
It’s tiring — and voters are tuning out.
Midterms are often a check on whoever sits in the White House.
And unless Democrats find a message that reaches working families and not just coastal elites, they’re in for another rude awakening.
The Bottom Line:
Democrats may want a repeat of their past “blue wave” victories, but current data shows they’re far from it.
With only a slim 2-point lead and Republicans projected to gain seats, the momentum is shifting.
Trump remains a powerful force, and Democrats have yet to find a message or a leader who can compete.
If trends continue, 2026 could mark another significant shift in the House — and not in their favor.
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