The presidential race is tightening, with recent polls showing a close contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Nate Silver, the well-known election forecaster, has updated his prediction model, now giving Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College.
This change comes after a New York Times-Siena College poll found Trump leading Harris by a narrow 1 percentage point.
While Harris has been ahead in some national and swing state polls since becoming the Democratic nominee, Silver’s model points to a shift in momentum towards Trump.
“A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump,” Silver wrote in his recent update. He explained that this highly-regarded poll has significantly impacted his model, shrinking Harris’s lead in the national polling average to just 2.5 points.
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One key finding from the NYT/Siena College poll is that more voters see Harris as “too liberal or progressive” on major issues compared to those who view Trump as “too conservative.”
This perception could be a hurdle for Harris as she tries to win over moderate voters.
Nate Silver's latest election model predicts a blowout victory for Donald Trump.
Trump — 312
Kamala – 226Agree?
Analysis: https://t.co/jqz0NwZIwM pic.twitter.com/sgkyTYuLOT
— OutKick (@Outkick) September 9, 2024
Silver’s model now gives Harris only a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College, despite her slight lead in national polls.
This gap shows how important state-by-state results are in the Electoral College system.
The pollster also highlighted potential weak spots for Harris in key swing states.
In Pennsylvania, Harris’s lead has shrunk from 1.8 points to 1.0 points since the Democratic National Convention. In Michigan, her lead has narrowed from 3.1 points to 1.9 points.
However, Silver noted that the upcoming debate could change things. “The good news for Harris is that there’s a debate on Tuesday, and if she turns in a strong performance, nobody is going to care so much about the Times poll,” he wrote.
The NYT poll also showed that many voters are unsure about Harris’s political positions.
Silver suggested this could be a chance for Harris to better define herself to voters. But he criticized her recent choice of running mate, arguing that picking Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro missed an opportunity to signal a more moderate approach.
As Election Day approaches, these polls and predictions will likely keep changing.
"We extended Temporary Protected Status to over 100,000 Haitian Migrants…They need support. They need protection." – Border Czar Kamala Harris pic.twitter.com/Z45Od3qZPH
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) September 9, 2024
Both campaigns still have time to adjust their strategies and persuade undecided voters.
The upcoming debate could be a crucial moment for Harris to address worries about her perceived liberalism and clarify her policy stances for American voters.
Voters will be closely watching how each candidate plans to address inflation, job growth, and overall economic stability.
Trump’s track record on the economy during his presidency may give him an edge with some voters concerned about financial security.
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On the other hand, Harris will need to make a compelling case for how her policies can boost economic growth while addressing concerns about government spending and regulation.
