Senator John Cornyn is in serious trouble. A new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with a commanding lead in the Republican primary race, signaling a major shift in GOP voter sentiment in Texas.
Key Facts:
- Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn 50% to 28% among Texas Republican primary voters, according to a poll by the Educational Freedom Institute.
- Paxton’s lead expands to 60% vs. 22% among “very conservative” voters.
- Among “MAGA voters,” Paxton leads Cornyn by 35 points; among GOP seniors, he leads by 12.
- Cornyn’s campaign dismissed the poll as biased, citing the pollster’s ties to Paxton.
- A separate internal Cornyn poll from April showed him ahead, but public polls consistently show him trailing.
The Rest of The Story:
The Republican primary for the Texas Senate seat is heating up, and Attorney General Ken Paxton appears to be gaining serious ground.
The latest poll conducted by Robert Blizzard for the Educational Freedom Institute shows Paxton leading Senator Cornyn by 22 points overall.
Among some of the GOP’s most engaged and conservative voters, Paxton’s lead is even larger.
He’s ahead by 30 points among frequent GOP primary voters and by 35 points among those identifying with the MAGA movement.
Cornyn’s campaign brushed off the numbers, saying the poll was conducted by a Paxton ally.
“We remain confident that once Republican primary voters fully understand Ken Paxton’s record of ethical failures, mismanagement and corruption, we will win this primary,” said Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak.
Sen. John Cornyn trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 22 points, according to a new independent poll of the Senate GOP primary. More from @AndrewDesiderio and @allymutnick—https://t.co/TLoWNmNRxt
— Punchbowl News (@PunchbowlNews) June 3, 2025
Commentary:
Ken Paxton’s surge is more than just polling momentum—it reflects the hunger among GOP voters for real change in Washington.
For decades, John Cornyn has worn the Republican label but acted like a centrist Democrat when it mattered most.
Whether it was supporting gun control legislation or dragging his feet on holding Biden’s DOJ accountable, Cornyn has repeatedly distanced himself from the America First movement.
Voters have noticed.
Now, they’re turning to Paxton—a known fighter unafraid to challenge the establishment.
Despite media narratives and political hit jobs, Paxton has remained firm in his support for conservative values, earning the trust of grassroots voters across Texas.
Cornyn’s team can cry foul about who conducted the poll, but that’s just noise.
Even independent surveys are showing a clear trend: voters are fed up with polished, go-along-to-get-along Republicans who say one thing in Texas and do another in D.C.
This isn’t just about Paxton vs. Cornyn.
It’s about what kind of Republican Party voters want.
One beholden to Mitch McConnell-style moderation, or one that stands firmly with working-class Americans who are tired of being ignored?
Trump’s potential endorsement could seal the deal.
And voters clearly respond when reminded of Cornyn’s past statements criticizing Trump and partnering with Democrats.
In fact, with that added context, Cornyn’s support dropped even further—to just 21%.
The tide is turning.
And it’s not in the direction of the old guard.
The Bottom Line:
Ken Paxton is gaining momentum, and John Cornyn is clearly on the ropes.
With Paxton dominating among core conservative groups, the numbers suggest this may be more than a temporary surge.
Unless Cornyn makes a dramatic shift—or gets a political lifeline from a Trump endorsement—Texas Republicans look ready to send a new kind of senator to Washington.
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