In what can only be considered jaw-dropping, the government recently announced that job gains between March 2023 and March 2024 were overstated by a staggering 818,000. This isn’t just a minor miscalculation; it’s a significant error that raises serious questions about the reliability of official economic data.
The Scale of the Error
To put this in perspective, the revision is the largest in 15 years, reminiscent of the reporting challenges during the Great Recession. This begs the question: How could such a massive overstatement occur?
Possible Explanations
While some have suggested potential manipulation of data, there’s another explanation that’s equally troubling for the Biden-Harris administration:
- Multiple Job Holders: Many middle-class workers are taking on multiple jobs to make ends meet. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Establishment Survey counts each job separately, potentially inflating the numbers.
- Estimation Errors: The BLS uses complex models to estimate job creation and loss from new and defunct businesses. These models are notoriously prone to errors.
The Discrepancy Between Surveys
The gap between the Household Survey and the Establishment Survey has been widening, raising red flags for economists. For instance:
“In the most recent month, for instance, the government’s Household Survey reported that 161.26 million civilians were employed, compared to 161.2 million in July 2023 — indicating almost no increase over year-over-year.”
The huge disparity between the the reported monthly job gains of nearly 242,000 on average is hard to reconcile.
Jobs report just got revised down 818,000.
According to @zerohedge, this is the biggest revision downward since the global financial crisis.
It gets worse… the jobs created under the Harris Biden regime never reached pre-pandemic levels and are going to foreign born workers. pic.twitter.com/lxElOA7Zh9
— Craig Chamberlin (@CraigChamberlin) August 21, 2024
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Impact on Policy and Trust
The inflated job numbers have likely influenced Federal Reserve decisions, keeping interest rates high despite signs of a cooling labor market. This has real-world consequences, such as higher mortgage rates for homebuyers.
More critically, these inaccuracies erode public trust in government institutions. When official reports don’t align with the economic realities Americans face daily, it breeds skepticism and disillusionment.
A Pattern of Overstatement?
It’s worth noting that this isn’t an isolated incident. Last year, job numbers were revised downward for 10 consecutive months. In June 2023, the initial report of 209,000 new jobs was later halved to just 105,000.
The Biden-Harris Economic Narrative
The administration has consistently touted strong job growth as a cornerstone of its economic policy. However, these significant revisions cast doubt on the accuracy of that narrative. As one economist put it:
“Those extra shifts are included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics data as multiple jobs; they are, in reality, just overworked Americans trying to navigate the Biden-Harris inflation tsunami.”
Echoes of Past Administrations
Interestingly, the last time job data was this significantly overinflated was during the Obama administration, when Biden served as Vice President. This pattern raises questions about whether similar strategies for economic reporting are being employed.
The Reality for Average Americans
While politicians and economists debate numbers, many Americans are feeling the pinch. The need for workers to take on multiple jobs speaks volumes about the true state of the economy. As one survey indicates:
“4.4 percent of respondents to a recent New York Fed survey reported they expected soon to become unemployed, up from 3.9 percent in July 2023. The Fed notes that the ‘current reading is the highest since the series started in July 2014.'”
Looking Ahead
Whether due to flawed methodologies or other factors, these inflated numbers have real consequences for policy decisions and public trust.
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Americans deserve an honest assessment of the economy – one that aligns with their lived experiences rather than political narratives approaching a election.
