Hedge Fund Billionaire Thinks US May Be Headed Towards Civil War, Gives His View on How it Would Play Out

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, billionaire investor Ray Dalio expressed his concerns about the growing divisions within the United States and the potential for a modern-day civil war.

Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, estimated a 35% to 40% chance of the country descending into a state of heightened political and cultural turmoil.

However, Dalio’s vision of a civil war differs from the traditional concept of bloody battles.

He believes it would manifest as a deepening of the existing rifts within the nation’s political system and culture, leading to a scenario where “people move to different states that are more aligned with what they want and they don’t follow the decisions of federal authorities of the opposite political persuasion.”

As the United States gears up for the 2024 presidential elections, which will see a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, Dalio emphasized the significance of these elections in determining the future of American democracy. “This year’s elections will test if democracy can work well, and if there will be an acceptance of democratic rules and an ability to work well under those constraints,” he told the Financial Times.

Amidst the rising partisanship and discord that have characterized recent election cycles, Dalio found an unlikely source of inspiration at a Taylor Swift concert.

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The experience left him with a glimmer of hope for a future where political leaders unite rather than divide the citizenry. “I saw how she brought people of all sorts — and many nationalities — together. It felt like it would have been impossible to fight,” Dalio said, adding, “I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I’d consider supporting her.”