Over the past six weeks, the U.S. job market has exhibited a level of consistency that borders on the extraordinary.
According to data released by the Labor Department, initial jobless claims have remained unchanged at 212,000 for five out of the last six weeks.
This remarkable stability in a labor force of 168 million has raised questions among market analysts and observers.
Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, expressed his skepticism on X, asking, “How is this statistically possible?” He pointed out that unemployment insurance programs are administered by 50 states, each with its own set of rules, offices, and filing systems.
Bianco argued that factors such as weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic fluctuations typically influence the number of people filing claims from week to week, making the current level of uniformity highly unusual.
Some commenters on Bianco’s thread suggested that the numbers might be fabricated or that “someone’s cooking the books.”
However, others attributed the consistency to seasonal adjustments. Tracey Ryniec, a strategist at Zacks Investment Research, encouraged looking at each state’s data, which she claimed varies greatly.
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A Labor Department spokesperson acknowledged that while the string of 212,000 prints is uncommon, it is not considered anomalous.
US initial jobless claims held at 212,000 in the week ended April 13, according to Labor Department data.
The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 215,000. Mike McKee reports https://t.co/aM1UPa9kVI pic.twitter.com/KAQysGvHSB
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) April 18, 2024
The spokesperson explained that the streak “can be reasonably interpreted as an indication that there has been very little volatility in initial claims over this period relative to historical patterns, and that the seasonal adjustment factors are effectively removing seasonality from the aggregate figures reported by states.”
It is worth noting that the non-seasonally adjusted claims data has shown significant fluctuations during the five-week period, with readings ranging from 191,772 to 215,265.
The Labor Department also highlighted that new seasonal factors were introduced to the claims data a month ago, and since then, initial claims have been at a fairly consistent level, particularly since the start of February 2024.
Despite the official explanations, the unwavering jobless claims figures raise suspicions about the accuracy and integrity of the data.
The fact that these numbers have remained unchanged for such an extended period suggests the possibility of data manipulation.
It is crucial to approach the government’s official narrative with a critical eye and consider alternative explanations for this unusual stability in the job market.
As the Federal Reserve closely monitors weekly claims numbers to assess the labor market’s resilience amidst tightening monetary policy, it is essential to ensure that the data accurately reflects the reality on the ground.
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The consistency in jobless claims, while seemingly positive on the surface, may be masking underlying issues or manipulations that could have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy and its workforce.
